Clickbaity title on the original article, but I think this is the most important point to consider from it:
After getting to 1% in approximately 2011, it took about a decade to double that to 2%. The jump from 2% to 3% took just over two years, and 3% to 4% took less than a year.
Get the picture? The Linux desktop is growing, and it’s growing fast.
Developers best we can do is exe or dmg
Is that because Linux run on more desktop computers, or just that there’s less desktop computers (and laptops) overall? When everybody switches to smartphones and AR/VR, and there’s bunch of geeks running Linux on their old rusty desktop setups, is that really something that should be celebrated?
I wanted to visualize this, so:
┌────────────────────────────────────────┐ 6 │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢰⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⠇⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡜⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⠜⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢠⠊⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡰⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣀⡠⠤⠒⠊⠉⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ │⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⣀⡠⠤⠔⠒⠉⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ 1 │⠀⠀⣀⣀⠤⠔⠒⠊⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀│ └────────────────────────────────────────┘ 2010 2030It’s not precise; I took the text
After getting to 1% in approximately 2011, it took about a decade to double that to 2%. The jump from 2% to 3% took just over two years, and 3% to 4% took less than a year
and converted it to:
2011,1 2021,2 2023,3 2024,4 2025,6Since my mobile client renders the terminal output poorly,
Proof that Linux use is rising asymptotically, and there will be infinity Linux users by 2030.
Edit I just discovered something nasty about Lemmy, at least in how the instance I’m on is configured. Lemmy rewrites comments to proxy image requests of external sources through the Lemmy server, but the proxy doesn’t work for some reason, so it fucks up the image; therefore, you can’t see it. Not cool, Lemmy. Not cool.
Every child born is a new Linux user
Article doesn’t actually explain what distribution people are downloading and installing. How do we know it isn’t the growth of SteamOS and the Steam Deck driving this?
SteamOS is also linux desktop, so I’d expect it to be included.
Don’t Steam Decks get counted as SteamOS?
SteamOS is Valve’s Linux-based operating system. It features a seamless user experience optimized for gaming,
Right and so is Android but we don’t consider people with an Android phone to be “Linux users” even though they’re technically using Linux.
I’ve switched both my laptop and desktop over to Linux (Bazzite and Fedora respectively) in the last 6 months.
The last time I tried to daily Linux (over a decade ago) I ended up switching back eventually, but this time I really don’t think I’ll need to. All of the games I play most often work perfectly, the dev tooling is even better than it is on Windows, and the hardware compatibility side has been completely flawless.
Gone are the days of having to hunt down obscure Linux drivers for your touchpad or webcam. Everything just works out of the box.
With recent articles claiming some games run better on Linux, I could see this sort of jump actually being possible
I hope this growth snowballs from now on; larger market share → developers release Linux versions for their software → users have less reasons to keep Windows → larger market share. Basically, a network-like effect.
If Linux reaches ~25% we basically won; the only advantage Windows has at its disposal is that network-like effect - Linux is cheaper (literally free), less encumbered by anti-user restrictions, and you can run it even in a potato.
That isn’t Windows only advantage. It is “easier” to use in the sense that it has less choices, especially if you have been using it in business for decades. You know it well enough to get around, with no concerns about different app names/icons/etc. Im not talking about chrome ot adobe either, im talking “what is the folder program called and why does it look like that” problems.
Most people give no shits about computers. They use what they know, if they use it at all. It’s why “phones and the occasional tablet” are by far the majority of most people’s home computers now.
Linux wont win until it wins offices. That will be where the snowball starts. The greay thing though is linix doesnt need to “win.” It can just be excellent and continue to be a much needed check on capitalism’s race to constrain our freedoms by enshittifing everything they can for profit.
No one uses phones or tablets for actual work. They’re just media consumption and mobile interface devices. When people need to get shit done they sit down with a keyboard and mouse. That’s why they call them workstations.
Well yes, but no. The older generations (millenials) do this but Gen-Z does not really knowhow to use a computer and often enough doesn’t want to use one. This problem will probably become even worse with the even younger generations.
Workstations are used at work, which is the main gist of my comment above.
Linux has picked up the low hanging fruit, i.e nerds and gamers who have actual computers at home. It wont win over some mythical “everyday home computer user” because they dont exist anymore.
For Linux to truly “snowball,” it needs a serious, fully seemless office replacement that has to be better than “odt by default” libreoffice. Until it can pick off the office clients, it will not win.
Still, it doesn’t need to. Pick up that nerd/gamer/granny dont care how she gets to chrome subset. That’s fantastic for linux, and will still drive innovation enough.
It wont win over some mythical “everyday home computer user” because they dont exist anymore.
I don’t even know what you’re talking about. The vast majority of people are interacting with a workstation on a daily basis. The only mythical users are the ones that exclusively use phones and tablets.
For Linux to truly “snowball,” it needs a serious, fully seemless office replacement
No one uses Office applications on their local machines anymore. Everything is done in the browser.
Matter of fact, a large majority of all work is done in the browser. Computers have, for a long time, been glorified Facebook machines. Look at how many people use Chrome OS that doesn’t even support any local software at all…
I just installed Mint the other day. I was pussy footing around with trying to create a persistent USB drive but the bootloader was fighting me. I finally just hovered over the “wipe drive and install” button for a while before I finally clicked and let it rip. Never again M$.
I first tried Ubuntu then switched to pop os and haven’t looked back. Feels great to be free of MS.
dual booting would be a pain in the ass, both setting it up and post-setup
I think the best solution is to just have Windows on other drive, that way it shouldn’t touch Linux drive’s bootloader.
Setup is piss easy, just hit install. The real pain is the random Windows update that will wipe all boot entries that aren’t Microsoft’s
Dual booting is dumb easy with most Linux installers. I’ve been dual booting two different Linux partitions for years.
Do you use different harddrives for your partitions? Because that might be the reason you dont have that much problems. From what I heard windows likes to wipe all boot entries that aren’t windows and are located on the same drive.
Nope same hard drive, but windows hasn’t touched my PC in nearly a decade, so that’s probably why I never have issues.
That was the conclusion that pushed me over.
I’m eagerly waiting this rise. We run a proprietary CAD that always had a Unix \ Linux version in parallel with Windows, it was the better option once W10 took over W7 because W10 made it run slow and Linux version was peppy…Fast forward a few years and CAD vendor kills Linux GUI version citing only 1% usage globally. So here’s me hoping they start reversing that decision.
Let’s all set our user-agent to 2001 WinXP running IE
6% now that’s what I like to hear! It’s time for developers to make Linux first native apps!
Omg there are so many of them out there already, even I just released one a couple of weeks ago: https://jeena.github.io/recoder/
Check out GNOME Circle for high profile apps: https://circle.gnome.org/ Or KDE Applications: https://apps.kde.org/ and so on.
My first operating system was AmigaOS 1.3, then I didn’t have a computer through my teenage years and only in 2001 I bought a PC and a magacine with a Suse Linux CD in it which I installed on that PC. But I couldn’t get the 56k modem to work with it because some drivers were missing. So I had to switch for a year to Windows 2000 (or 98, I don’t remember). But then I had a girlfriend who had a PC which was connected to the internet via ADSL, so I could do the research on that her computer while installing Debian on my computer from a 3.5 inch floppy disk (I found a network installer which fit on the disk). So I only had to use Windows for about a year.
There was another exception where I had a MacBook from 2008 to 2012 but other than that I’ve been on Linux for most of my life. Oh and I use Arch btw.
