Remote work risks wiping $800 billion from the value of office buildings in major cities, highlighting the potential losses that landlords are facing from post-pandemic changes in employment trends.
Someone is holding that bag, though. Unfortunately for us, the people holding that bag have the kind of money to make our lives hell just for a fraction of a percentage point of value for their bottom line.
The really bad news is the one left holding the bag is the commercial real estate market, which if it goes under due to remote work reducing demand for office space theb it’s likely to heavily impact bank stability. So there is reason to be concerned as individuals low on the chain
I’ve been wondering why this isn’t talked about more.
All those commercial mortgages are intertwined with banks, and retirement accounts, and all sorts of “stable” investments.
Plus it’s not just the offices directly affected by pandemic remote work that aren’t renewing their leases. New companies wont lease a building since it’s not expected anymore, and big companies will be counting the beans to see how much they can save by reducing office space.
This is a phase shift in commercial real estate that I don’t think banks have budgeted for.
I’m sure everyone on wall street knows it’s coming, but if they can act surprised and get another bailout in a major crash, that’s just going to cost you and me our futures, again.
To clarify (what I think you’re talking about), CMBS ie commercial mortgage backed securities is eerily similar to the bullshit that kicked off the '80 ‘great recession’, which was speculation / shorting on MBS. I remember reading an economist at the time of '08 saying this is very bad, but he predicts we’ll just about scrape through it, followed by a long period of stagnating growth, zero lessons learned, then a crash which will make '08 look like a fender bender.
I always hoped he was wrong but day by day, month by month, I saw his prediction coming true.
This is also really bad news for all the small businesses that rely on the office workers who work from home now. I’m all for shoving it to the billionaires and mega corps but it seems like everyone’s forgotten about all the small(er) businesses they deal with on a daily basis and all the people who work for them.
There’s also the tax revenue streaming from the offices, small businesses, and the people who work there. Less people taking public transportation makes them less safe and slows progress on improvements. It’s not difficult to imagine city coffers shrinking, leaving room for more abandoned store fronts and an increase in crime.
I mean, if there’s enough people who are no longer going to work everyday, there’s a potentially devastating outcome on the horizon. Let’s not get distracted by our elation of the wealthy (possibly) suffering. This is bad news for everyone who lives in a city.
well my hope is it pushes investment back.into leisure and third space usage, to encourage people back into cities for fun reasons rather than just to operate a keyboard which I can do from anywhere
I agree and actually if the commercial areas of the cities become more residencial. In my experience they become safer because some massive commercial areas when the sun goes down they are not nice to walk.
Someone is holding that bag, though. Unfortunately for us, the people holding that bag have the kind of money to make our lives hell just for a fraction of a percentage point of value for their bottom line.
We were always going to pay for their failures; this one, or the next.
More like this one and the next
The really bad news is the one left holding the bag is the commercial real estate market, which if it goes under due to remote work reducing demand for office space theb it’s likely to heavily impact bank stability. So there is reason to be concerned as individuals low on the chain
I’ve been wondering why this isn’t talked about more.
All those commercial mortgages are intertwined with banks, and retirement accounts, and all sorts of “stable” investments.
Plus it’s not just the offices directly affected by pandemic remote work that aren’t renewing their leases. New companies wont lease a building since it’s not expected anymore, and big companies will be counting the beans to see how much they can save by reducing office space.
This is a phase shift in commercial real estate that I don’t think banks have budgeted for.
I’m sure everyone on wall street knows it’s coming, but if they can act surprised and get another bailout in a major crash, that’s just going to cost you and me our futures, again.
To clarify (what I think you’re talking about), CMBS ie commercial mortgage backed securities is eerily similar to the bullshit that kicked off the '80 ‘great recession’, which was speculation / shorting on MBS. I remember reading an economist at the time of '08 saying this is very bad, but he predicts we’ll just about scrape through it, followed by a long period of stagnating growth, zero lessons learned, then a crash which will make '08 look like a fender bender.
I always hoped he was wrong but day by day, month by month, I saw his prediction coming true.
This is also really bad news for all the small businesses that rely on the office workers who work from home now. I’m all for shoving it to the billionaires and mega corps but it seems like everyone’s forgotten about all the small(er) businesses they deal with on a daily basis and all the people who work for them.
There’s also the tax revenue streaming from the offices, small businesses, and the people who work there. Less people taking public transportation makes them less safe and slows progress on improvements. It’s not difficult to imagine city coffers shrinking, leaving room for more abandoned store fronts and an increase in crime.
I mean, if there’s enough people who are no longer going to work everyday, there’s a potentially devastating outcome on the horizon. Let’s not get distracted by our elation of the wealthy (possibly) suffering. This is bad news for everyone who lives in a city.
well my hope is it pushes investment back.into leisure and third space usage, to encourage people back into cities for fun reasons rather than just to operate a keyboard which I can do from anywhere
I agree and actually if the commercial areas of the cities become more residencial. In my experience they become safer because some massive commercial areas when the sun goes down they are not nice to walk.