Clickbaity title on the original article, but I think this is the most important point to consider from it:

After getting to 1% in approximately 2011, it took about a decade to double that to 2%. The jump from 2% to 3% took just over two years, and 3% to 4% took less than a year.

Get the picture? The Linux desktop is growing, and it’s growing fast.

  • Darren@sopuli.xyzEnglish
    5·
    2 hours ago

    Does it count that I have four computers running Linux because I can’t help myself?

  • Sina@beehaw.org
    9·
    6 hours ago

    Statcounter considers me a Win user due to the Win user agent I’m using, this is not a rare behavior in the Linux space…

  • webghost0101@sopuli.xyz
    20·
    8 hours ago

    A king once summoned a wise man who had done him a great service and said, “Name your reward.” The wise man replied, “Your Majesty, I ask for a simple thing. Give me one percent Linux desktop market share for the first square of the chessboard, two percent for the second square, four percent for the third square, and so on, doubling the amount for each of the 64 squares.” The king, thinking this was a modest request, said, “Surely you jest! Such a small reward for such a great service? Ask for gold, land, or jewels instead.” But the wise man insisted, and the king agreed. The king ordered his treasurer to calculate the total. Starting with 1% for the first square, 2% for the second, 4% for the third, 8% for the fourth… by the time they reached the tenth square, they needed 512% of the desktop market. The treasurer, pale with realization, informed the king that by the 64th square, they would need more market share than could possibly exist in the entire universe of computing devices. The king then understood that what seemed like a humble request was actually impossible to fulfill, and he gained a new respect for the power of exponential growth.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

    • xthexder@l.sw0.com
      2·
      3 hours ago

      It already goes over 100% market share after only 8 squares. 512% seems like a weird place to stop? How can you have more than 100% market share?

        • xthexder@l.sw0.com
          1·
          22 minutes ago

          Yeah, I appreciate the reference, it’s just that my brain got stuck on the comparison breaking due to using percentage instead of some absolute count.

    • Cricket [he/him]@lemmy.zipOP
      13·
      7 hours ago

      They used a different data source for this one and mentioned why they preferred this one over the one from the day before.

    • squaresinger@lemmy.world
      4·
      9 hours ago

      I read a similarly sensationalist headline with 4% two months ago and 5% yesterday. What’s up with the headline makers?

      • BlameTheAntifa@lemmy.world
        9·
        8 hours ago

        Linux is gaining market share quickly as the Windows 10 EOL rapidly approaches. There is still a massive amount of perfectly great hardware out there that isn’t officially supported by Windows 11, and only 3 months until Windows 10 reaches EOL.

        • squaresinger@lemmy.world
          61·
          6 hours ago

          According to more realistic data, e.g. https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-202406-202506 the market share has been around 4% for the last year, even slightly declining in the meantime.

          But that doesn’t make for nice, sensationalist headline stoked by wishful thinking.

          Sorry to say, Linux isn’t going mainstream anytime soon and by and large the end of Win10 just means that the comparatively small group of users still running 5+ years old hardware will just buy a new PC or keep using their outdated OS.

          In fact, if you combine the market share of outdated Windows versions (XP-8.1) you get a market share very close to the market share of Linux.

          As much as we all would love it if the Linux market share goes to 50% in fall, it’s not going to happen.

          The main issues with Linux adoption (it’s not preinstalled and most people have no idea which OS they are using and really can’t be bothered to reinstall) are just as present as they ware for the last 30 years.

        • Cricket [he/him]@lemmy.zipOPEnglish
          3·
          7 hours ago

          Agreed. I think we’re still going to see a LOT of growth in Linux market share by the end of this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 7%-8% by then.

  • Ptsf@lemmy.world
    157·
    21 hours ago

    About to be 6.0000001% when my Kubuntu download finishes. I’m finally taking the dive boys, linux on main here we go.

    • gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
      4·
      8 hours ago

      FWIW, Fedora with KDE is fantastic - been using that as my distro of choice (for systems I want a UI on at least) for a few years now and I love it.

    • teawrecks@sopuli.xyz
      2·
      9 hours ago

      Cool, welcome! I assume you’re aware that it won’t be all sunshine and rainbows from day 1, but give it time and leverage the community to solve any issues you run into. Effective bug reports and knowledge sharing make the experience better for everyone.

      To me it’s worth having control over my hardware, and an OS that’s designed to work for me and not some corpo against me.

    • expr@programming.dev
      10·
      19 hours ago

      I think kubuntu was the very first distro I ever installed in a VM when trying out Linux 10 years ago. I’ve since moved on (an aging Arch install right now, which will eventually be replaced by a NixOS install whenever I get around to it), but just wanted to say that a whole new world lies at your footsteps, my friend. Enjoy it. It’s like discovering the wonder of computing for the first time.

    • ☂️-@lemmy.ml
      8·
      21 hours ago

      welcome!

      i use ubuntu and its a good choice, but id recommend installing gnome-software and its flatpak plugin and using that instead of the slower snaps. its perfect otherwise, enjoy!

        • caseyweederman@lemmy.ca
          1·
          6 hours ago

          You still need the underlying package manager installed (it’ll prompt you to do so), and on Plasma 5.0 you also need a special integration plugin for each package manager (merged into Discover since I think Plasma 6.0).
          Discover is a joy to use.

    • Harvey656@lemmy.world
      5·
      19 hours ago

      Nice! That’s what I use. Don’t see alot of others talk about Kubuntu. I enjoy the heck out of it. It doesn’t play games all that well, but that could also be user error as well. Still, so far it’s my favorite distro. Good luck on your journey!

  • neon_nova@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
    42·
    20 hours ago

    A long time ago when Linux was around 2-3% someone said that macOS adoption by software companies happened when it got to 5% of the marketshare.

    If Linux continues down the path, we might see real support from some of the holdouts.

    Before anyone says to use an alternative, sometimes there are not workable alternatives.

    • DarkSideOfTheMoon@lemmy.world
      2·
      6 hours ago

      Linux has a problem with distribution of binaries, and companies for profit doesn’t want to share source … and packages with only binaries have some dependencies problem… although Flatpak and Snap improved this A LOT…. But then would have GLPv3 in many dependencies and you cannot ship it with a “for profit” product.

      This is the biggest hurdle for Linux “for profit” market for better apps. Also many Linux users are against the paid model, preferring open source. There is a cultural limitation to break the bubble

      I think SteamOS is helping a lot to break this … but still Linux desktop need to have a cultural change specially on license model or binary stability to be able to have a better app availability

      • LeFantome@programming.dev
        1·
        2 hours ago

        This has been a big problem historically. Agreed.

        But you cite the solution yourself. Flatpak is all you need for effective distribution of commercial apps. GPL has nothing to do with it. There are already commercial apps in FlatHub.

        What is missing is “paid” commercial apps. We have no “take my money” App Store in Linux. I think FlatHub is working on it. Honestly, I am surprised a commercial company has not launched one yet. Well, other than Steam of course.

  • Mio@feddit.nu
    201·
    18 hours ago

    But it is only in the US and not globally. Anyway, competition is good.

  • limer@lemmy.ml
    34·
    20 hours ago

    When it gets to 7%, is that when there is more malware designed for Linux desktop ?

    • majster@lemmy.zipEnglish
      20·
      16 hours ago

      There is already plenty of malware targeting devs on Linux where is it’s strongest userbase.

    • comfy@lemmy.ml
      151·
      17 hours ago

      Yeah, unfortunate to rain in the parade but GNU/Linux definitely needs some attention sooner rather than later. Plenty of design benefits, but also plenty of pitfalls from an OS sec POV.

      Average users aren’t installing SELinux or Qubes so I hope no-one was actually going to reply with what Linux can do as opposed to the everyday user experience.

      A few years outdated, but relevant: https://madaidans-insecurities.github.io/linux.html

      • kadu@lemmy.world
        4·
        13 hours ago

        but also plenty of pitfalls from an OS sec POV.

        Can’t possibly be more vulnerable than Windows, the system where you can elevate yourself to highest privileges by simply clicking “Yes” on a prompt without a password, and where most users are running outdated versions of their software because they never update anything, or have a thousand background “updater” applets that are scheduled to run periodically and have the ability to install arbitrary executables from their servers.

        • squaresinger@lemmy.world
          51·
          12 hours ago

          If you run a repo-only system, where everything you install comes from the first-party distro repo, you’ll likely be fine. Just as you are on Windows or Android if you only download apps from the first-party store.

          But like on Windows and Android, you’ll quickly reach the limit of what you can do with first-party store only.

          Especially stuff like gaming requires non-repo/non-store stuff pretty quickly, and then you are on exactly the same turf as on Windows.

          • BlameTheAntifa@lemmy.world
            3·
            8 hours ago

            where everything you install comes from the first-party distro repo, you’ll likely be fine.

            Canonical’s Snapcraft has a bad reputation for a reason. Many reasons. But compromised apps is a major one.

          • kadu@lemmy.world
            6·
            11 hours ago

            There’s no world where Windows users only use the official store. In fact, that’s why every “S” version of Windows always failed.

            • squaresinger@lemmy.world
              1·
              9 hours ago

              Exactly my point. Also on Linux you quickly get to the limits of what you can find in the first-party repos without ppas or downloading .rpm/.deb/… files. And same as on Windows, having a malware-free first-party repo/store won’t protect you from malware if you download your programs from elsewhere.

  • BrightCandle@lemmy.world
    44·
    21 hours ago

    Most technology adoption follows an S curve, it can often take a long time to start to get going. Linux has gradually and steadily been improving especially for games and other desktop uses while at the same time Microsoft has been making Windows worse. I feel more that this is Microsoft’s fault, they have abandoned the development of desktop Windows and the advancement of support for modern processor designs and gaming hardware. This has for the first time has let Linux catch up and in many cases exceed Windows capabilities on especially gaming which has always been a stubborn issue. Its still a problem especially in hardware support for VR and other peripherals but its the sort of thing that might sort itself out once the user base grows and companies start producing software for Linux instead.

    It might not be enough, but the switching off Windows 10 is causing a change which Microsoft might really regret in a few years.

    • merc@sh.itjust.works
      1·
      43 minutes ago

      Most technology adoption follows an S curve

      For successful technologies. Sometimes technologies just don’t catch on, like 3d TVs, or VR or Segways. Then the curve is more up then back down to zero.

      But yeah, this time might be different. Linux has more or less reached feature parity with Windows. Games run just as well or better under Linux, with only a little bit of fiddling. That alone might not be enough, but having that happen when Windows 10 is reaching end of life, and Microsoft wants you to buy new expensive hardware for the privilege of moving to Windows 11, and just as they’re adding all kinds of new ads and AI bullshit into Windows.

      Personally, I’m already on Linux, so my main reason for hoping it gets more momentum is so that device manufacturers make sure their drivers work well in Linux. Full driver support and full software support for devices is the main thing that’s still a bit of a pain.

    • HaraldvonBlauzahn@feddit.org
      10·
      19 hours ago

      Microsoft has been making Windows worse. I feel more that this is Microsoft’s fault, they have abandoned the development of desktop Windows and the advancement of support for modern processor designs and gaming hardware.

      Moores law is dead since a long time except for graphic cards and GPUs. This means you can’t keep adding things to desktop software in the style of “What IBM giveth, Microsoft takes away”.

      Existing development paradigms don’t add significant qualities to many-processor hardware.

      Which also explains part of the AI craze. It is investment money searching for a sensible use.

    • Semisimian@startrek.websiteEnglish
      13·
      21 hours ago

      I’ll hang on to 10 as long as they’ll let me, but I am never going to 11. Then it’ll be a distro for dis bro.

      Sorry.

        • Truscape@lemmy.blahaj.zone
          91·
          17 hours ago

          For me, VR support. Rocking win10 IOT LTSC on my main PC until compatibility improves, but already switched to Mint on my work laptop (and likely the main PC before/during 2032)

          • neon_nova@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
            5·
            16 hours ago

            Awesome! Mint is great, it’s my number one recommendation.

            I’ve never tried vr before and I’d really like to at some point.

            • Truscape@lemmy.blahaj.zone
              2·
              9 hours ago

              OpenXR/SteamVR is an amazing system, and it’s easy to buy a second hand headset and just replace the face gasket (The Valve index has them attached with a few magnets). Especially with games like VRchat, Half Life ALYX, and modded support in games like Minecraft, PCVR is pretty good right now for newbies!

          • PrivateNoob@sopuli.xyz
            1·
            12 hours ago

            Agreed! I use EOS but I have to keep a dual boot setup mostly because of VR. ALVR is extremely buggy and slow for me whereas Envision easily starts but has a -10-20FPS and might crash in 10+ people VRChat instances

  • sic_semper_tyrannis@lemmy.todayEnglish
    66·
    23 hours ago

    SteamOS, Bazzite, and the Plasma DE I think are what’s driving Linux to be more popular. They are all very streamlined experiences.

    • ProfessorOwl_PhD [any]@hexbear.net
      4·
      10 hours ago

      SteamOS and Bazzite are certainly contributing among gamers, but there also seem to be a lot of casual users moving to Mint and pop!_os. I’ve seen quite a few people using them to extend the life of older hardware.

    • railcar@midwest.socialEnglish
      6·
      13 hours ago

      As more people learn bazzite just works, it’s going to grow. If I hadn’t rescued my son’s windows license he would have switched.

    • freeman@feddit.org
      361·
      22 hours ago

      I tested Gnome and KDE Plasma5 in the last year. KDE Plasma is in my opinion the first DE which is comparable with Win/MacOS. It looks modern, is pretty much feature complete and as an average user its nice to have useful apps preinstalled (calculator, libreoffice, firefox and so on), but no bloatware.

      Its just a bit more customizable than windows, which is perfect and also not fiddly and a pain. It certainly has a handful of quirks, like Windows does, but you get used to them.

      If I have to set up elderly relatives with a computer, I’d strongly consider a KDE Plasma Desktop

      • pineapple@lemmy.mlEnglish
        3·
        10 hours ago

        I think generally macos users would feel more at home in gnome where as windows users more in kde.

      • aksdb@lemmy.world
        22·
        19 hours ago

        The preinstalled apps are not a feature of KDE (or Gnome, XFCE, etc.). Actually they all are structured in a very modular way where you can use or omit individual components. Firefox and LibreOffice are completely independent of it even; they merely add compatibility layers to make the integration more seamless.

        What you experienced was something to attribute to the distribution you chose. They are the ones to decide which components to bundle and preinstall. That is also the reason why so many distributions exist in the first place, because different teams/devs have different visions about what the desktop should look and feel like after install.

      • neon_nova@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        9·
        20 hours ago

        I never got gnome, it’s like macOS, but I never enjoyed using it even after being a Mac user.

        Plasma and cinnamon are my top desktop recommendations.

        • somenonewho@feddit.org
          8·
          18 hours ago

          Well as someone who’s been using gnome since about 3.10 I might be able to explain my view:
          Before that I’ve used plasma and Unity and a whole lot of Mate but then I started using Gnome for a pretty and smooth experience right out of the Box.
          Now I’ve simply been using it for so long that it’s muscle memory all the way.
          I don’t agree with everything the gnome devs decide and I definitely am annoyed that I have to use extension for small things that should just be a toogle in the settings but I’ve realized some time ago that if I did switch to plasma I would use all the customizability to make it work like Gnome … so I stay on Gnome.

        • juipeltje@lemmy.world
          5·
          16 hours ago

          Gnome really tends to drag their feet when it comes to new features/wayland protocols to implement. I’m pretty sure they didn’t even have adaptive sync for the longest time, when even smaller wlroots projects already supported it. I don’t hate gnome though, i actually kinda dig their design, but unfortunately i can’t stand using floating window managers anymore, i only use tiling.

          • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
            4·
            12 hours ago

            Yeah, I’ve heard this before. I don’t believe though, that I’ve yet been a user of those still-unsupported features though, so I haven’t noticed anything affecting me yet.

        • actionjbone@sh.itjust.works
          15·
          21 hours ago

          What’s great is neither of you are wrong from your own perspectives - and both of you are free to share your message and preferences.

          • TrickDacy@lemmy.world
            41·
            12 hours ago

            Apparently not without ire, unfortunately. Somehow got downvoted for what I wrote…

            People HATE Gnome and I don’t get it. I’ve heard the arguments but in all practicality I have tried KDE too and then minutes into trying the complicated customization features I just wanna go back to gnome. Give me a somewhat new version of gnome and 30 minutes and I’ll have it configured how I want and it looks and runs nice. I recently spent 30 minutes trying to understand customization of the bottom bar in KDE and gave up